As of August 12, 2025, the market valuation of XRP remained at 33.4 billion US dollars (approximately 45.6 billion Canadian dollars), ranking seventh in the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies. The annual cumulative increase was only 12.3%, significantly lagging behind Ethereum’s 38% and Solana’s 167%. The current price of $0.62 is 83.9% lower than the peak of $3.84 in 2028, but the price-to-sales ratio (P/S) is 41.7 times, far exceeding Bitcoin’s 19.3 times. If evaluated by the growth rate of on-chain effective addresses, the monthly active address increase of XRP is only 8.5%, lower than the industry average of 15.2%, and the market attention shows a marginal decreasing trend.
Analysis of true value support
The 2025 report of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) shows that the RippleNet network covers 120 financial institutions in 200 countries, processing a cross-border payment volume of 1.8 trillion US dollars annually, and its market share has increased to 3.7%. Key progress includes the adoption of the ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) plan by Bank of America to handle 45% of the payments along the Mexico-US corridor, with an average daily settlement volume of 370 million US dollars. In terms of liquidity indicators, the 30-day average trading volume of the XRP centralized exchange was 1.63 billion US dollars, with a bid-ask spread of only 0.02%, and its liquidity depth was superior to 92% of crypto assets. However, the on-chain staking ratio is less than 1.2%, and the annualized return is only 0.8%, far lower than the 7.2% of SOL, which weakens the motivation to hold the token.
Double squeeze from regulation and competition
Although Ripple reached a settlement with the SEC in 2023, the G20’s newly established Crypto Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) requires financial institutions to disclose XRP transactions worth over 100,000 euros, leading to a 30% increase in compliance costs. SWIFT’s blockchain platform ISO 20022 was connected to 83 central banks in Q2 2025, directly seizing the target market of Ripple. What is even more serious is the replacement of stablecoins: USDC has seen an annual growth rate of 57% in the cross-border settlement field. Circle’s cooperation channel with Visa only costs 0.001 US dollars to process a single transaction, which is five times the efficiency of Ripple. The proportion of XRP usage in payment protocols has dropped from 19% in 2021 to 13.8% currently.
Differences in valuation models have emerged
Bloomberg Intelligence Research, using the NTF (Network Transaction Traffic) valuation framework, shows that the fair value range of XRP is $0.51 to $0.74, and the current price is in the middle range. However, the MVRV-Z indicator (market capitalization/realized value) of the on-chain data analysis platform Santiment is -0.23, indicating that there is a 23% undervaluation compared to the holding cost. The historical volatility also dropped to 38%, the lowest level in three years, and the risk premium narrowed. Morgan Stanley warns that if Ripple’s management implements its 2025 plan – releasing 200 million XRP to institutions each month (approximately 0.34% of the circulating volume), potential selling pressure could cause the price to deviate from its value center by ±15%.
Capital flow and market expectations
Data from Dove Metrics, a crypto fund traffic monitor, shows that in the first half of 2025, XRP products saw a net outflow of $430 million, while SOL products saw an inflow of $2.8 billion during the same period. The signals in the derivatives market are contradictory: The open interest of XRP perpetual contracts on Bitfinex has decreased by 41% year-on-year, but the open interest of call options is concentrated at $0.75 (implied volatility 78%). Based on the CoinGecko Community Sentiment Index, only 32% of the participants believed that the XRP market valuation was undervalued, a significant drop from 57% six months ago.
The current XRP Relative Strength Index (RSI) weekly line remains in the neutral range of 45. Under the benchmark scenario of a 20% annual increase in institutional adoption rate, the DCF model offers a fair valuation of $0.68 (with a premium space of 9.7%). It is recommended that investors pay attention to the implementation of the G20 regulatory details in September and the progress of Ripple’s IPO (if successful, it may release 40% upward elasticity). For short-term operations, the fluctuation range of 0.58 to 0.72 US dollars can be referred to, and its weight in the diversified investment portfolio should not exceed 5% to 8%.