1 btc to usd price of Bitcoin is determined by several factors. As of 10 November 2023, at 12:00 Greenwich Mean Time, its price was $36,750 (CoinMarketCap #CMC257), 46.6% down from the peak of $68,789 in November 2021. But 122.7% above the bottom of $16,500 in January 2023. On supply and demand, the Bitcoin halving cycle (where the block reward is cut in half every four years) has a direct impact on the supply. The fourth halving is in April 2024 (with the block reward dropping from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC). The past history shows that the average increase in 365 days since the halving is 418% (historical data for 2012, 2016, and 2020). The chain’s active addresses (7-day MA) totaled 985,000, 39% lower than the peak in 2021. Whale addresses with over 1,000 BTC (accounting for 11.2% of outstanding volume) increased their balance by 34,000 BTC (approximately 1.25 billion US dollars) at the support price of 30,000 US dollars. Shape near-term buying pressure (Glassnode #GN2023).
Regulatory policy played a large role. In June 2023, the SEC filed an action against Binance (case No. 1:23-cv-01599), forcing 1 btc to usd falling 7.3% in one day to $25,300. If the BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF application (Document No. S7-32-23) is approved, the filing could attract 24 billion US dollars of additional capital (projected by the ARK Invest model). Macro-economically, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates a total of 500 basis points during 2023, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 106.8. The correlation coefficient for the last 30 days between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 reached as high as 0.72 (historical median 0.35), but its safe-haven attribute has surfaced more resilient with tensions geopolitical. During the October 2023 war between Israel and Palestine, Bitcoin gained 12% in one day (gold gained 9.3%), and its 30-day annualized volatility rose from 55% to 89%.
The miner’s behavior is cost support. The network’s total computing power has exceeded 500 EH/s (all-time high). The average electricity cost of mining is $18,800 per coin and the shutdown cost around $17,200 (CCAF data, University of Cambridge). Currently, the miner’s balance (untouched coins) has increased to 1.84 million BTC, accounting for 9.8% of the total supply. Once the price drops below the shutdown price, there is a risk of selling. In the derivatives market, CME Bitcoin futures outstanding contract volume was 16 billion US dollars (historical high) and perpetual contract funding rate was 0.008% (neutral), but leveraged liquidations were concentrated between 32,000 and 38,000 US dollars (estimated default size of 1.8 billion US dollars, Bybit #BYBIT202311).
Market sentiment indicators are differentiated. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index stands at 62 (level of greed), while the MVRV ratio (market capitalisation realised value) of 1.3 remains lower than the historically established bull market average of 2.5. Institutionally, MicroStrategy held 158,245 BTC (average cost price of $29,672) and earned a profit of $2.12 billion. While Tesla reduced its holding by 75% (as stated in its 2022 financial report), it sold out $1.33 billion. Technological improvements have driven adoption levels. The capacity of the Lightning Network has exceeded 5,600 BTC (approximately 206 million US dollars), and the processing capacity has reached 1 million transactions per second (65,000 transactions for Visa). The issuance of Bitcoin bonds in El Salvador has been postponed to 2024, and the average cost of holding coins in the country is 45,000 US dollars (currently bearing a floating loss of 18.3%).